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ELECTION RESULTS IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
December 4, 2004
Three contiguous counties in southwestern Ohio, all
traditionally Republican counties, gave unexpectedly
large margins to George W. Bush over John F. Kerry on
election night. All three counties experienced a
huge increase in voter turnout. In all three
counties, Bush received a higher percentage of the
vote than he did in the 2000 election, and Kerry
received a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore
did in 2000. This study analyzes how it happened.
In Warren County, the administrative building was
locked down on election night, all in the name of
"homeland security." No independent persons were
allowed to observe the vote count. Compared to 2000,
the population increased by 14.75%, the number of
registered voters increased by 29.66%, voter turnout
increased by 33.55%, Bush’s point spread increased
from 42.24% to 44.58%, and Bush’s victory margin
increased from 29,176 votes to 41,124 votes.
In Clermont County, compared to 2000, the population
increased by 4.39%, the number of registered voters
increased by 10.20%, voter turnout increased by
24.86%, Bush's point spread increased from 37.50%
to 41.69%, and Bush's victory margin increased from
26,202 votes to 36,376 votes.
In Butler County, compared to 2000, the population
increased by 3.12%, the number of registered voters
increased by 10.06%, voter turnout increased by
18.18%, Bush's point spread increased from 29.40%
to 32.52%, and Bush's victory margin increased from
40,197 votes to 52,550 votes.
These three counties provided to George W. Bush a
victory margin of 130,050 votes, nearly equal to his
statewide margin of 136,483 votes.
All the above data are figures provided on election
night. It is preferable, when making comparisons, to
use synoptic data, and as of this writing, not all
counties have finalized their vote count.
To analyze how the Republicans achieved their
impressive victory margins, I have compared the
results of the 2004 and 2000 presidential elections.
Tables of data are arranged by city or township,
showing vote totals for the candidates, pluralities,
gains or losses, and the difference between the
margins of 2004 and 2000. In this way it can be
readily seen where the victory margins came from.
BUTLER COUNTY
St. Clair Township + 523
Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 1,877 1,008 869
2000 1,466 1,120 346
Change 411 - 112 523
These election results are not credible. Voter
turnout was up substantially (8.27%), yet Kerry got
10% fewer votes than Gore. Exactly.
Precinct Bush Kerry Bush Gore
4KA 217 173 152 213
4KB 224 125 186 104
4KC 210 104 148 126
4KD 235 119 181 129
4KE 224 128 191 146
4KF 294 171 231 188
4KG 94 36 92 50
4KH 379 152 285 164
In fact, Kerry is reported to have received fewer
votes than Gore in 7 of 8 precincts in St. Clair
Township. Only Precinct 4KB appears realistic when
compared with the 2000 results.
Liberty Township + 3,078
Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 11,629 3,404 8,225
2000 7,619 2,472 5,147
Change 4,010 932 3,078
Liberty Township accounted for 24.9% of the reported
increase in Bush’s margin of victory in Butler
County. Compared to 2000 there was reportedly a
41.02% increase in voter registration and a 46.43%
increase in voter turnout. Upon closer examination
these numbers are not credible.
The increase in voter registration, as a percentage,
is wildly distributed throughout the township. There
are 20 precincts in Liberty Township, including one,
Precinct 4DT, that did not exist in 2000. There were
11 precincts with less than a 30% increase in voter
registration, 9 with less than 20%, 5 with less than
10%, and two that actually suffered a loss. Bush’s
net gain in these 11 precincts was 571 votes. His
big gains came in the 9 precincts with more than a
30% increase in voter registration:
Prec. Regis. Bush Kerry Bush Gore Net Gain
4DA + 52.1% 632 161 423 89 + 137
4DB + 33.8% 727 229 547 186 + 137
4DC + 64.5% 635 201 360 117 + 191
4DF + 34.0% 723 158 511 131 + 185
4DG + 43.3% 704 185 505 129 + 143
4DI +177.9% 1,220 288 413 118 + 637
4DO +143.5% 979 270 358 96 + 447
4DP + 34.3% 600 181 431 143 + 131
4DT N.A. 676 177 N.A. N.A. + 499
Look at these numbers. In Precinct 4DI, the number
of registered voters rose from 660 to 1,834. Bush’s
share of the increased vote was 807 to 170 for Kerry,
a net gain of 637 votes. In Precinct 4DO, the number
of registered voters rose from 596 to 1,451. Bush’s
share of the increase was 621 votes to 174 for Kerry,
a net gain of 447 votes. In Precinct 4DT, the brand
new one, Bush’s net gain was 499 votes. In these
three precincts alone, Bush enjoyed a net gain of
1,583 votes, 51.43% of his net increase for the
entire township, and 12.81% of his net increase for
the entire county. Altogether these 9 precincts gave
Bush a net gain of 2,507 votes. Or so they say.
Monroe City + 782
Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 3,399 1,401 1,998
2000 2,303 1,087 1,216
Change 1,096 314 782
In Monroe City the increase in voter registration, as
a percentage, is also unevenly distributed.
Prec. Regis. Bush Kerry Bush Gore Net Gain
4CA + 65.5% 496 219 272 138 + 143
4CB + 0.7% 461 188 395 198 + 76
4CC + 9.9% 604 216 511 209 + 86
5CA + 38.8% 560 227 336 164 + 161
5CB + 48.2% 279 129 176 80 + 54
5CC - 2.4% 272 102 229 109 + 50
5CD + 69.3% 727 320 384 189 + 212
Massive increases in the voter rolls in 4 of 7
precincts accounted for 72.3% of Bush’s net gain in
Monroe City. The records will show whether or not
these huge increases are real. In 2 of the other 3
precincts, Kerry got fewer votes than Gore even
though voter turnout was up sharply.
Trenton City + 785
Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 3,153 1,510 1,643
2000 2,088 1,230 858
Change 1,065 280 785
In Trenton City the increase in voter registration is
more evenly distributed, ranging from 7.08% to 36.94%
among 7 precincts; and the net gains for George W.
Bush are more evenly distributed, ranging from 81
votes to 170 votes among 7 precincts. The proof that
the numbers are untrue is the distribution of votes
among the candidates:
Prec. Badnarik Bush Kerry Petrouka
4EA 2 464 249 0
4EB 2 661 272 0
4EC 2 373 191 0
4ED 3 395 248 1
5EA 30 284 115 0
5EB 0 468 243 0
5EC 2 508 192 2
Total 41 3,153 1,510 3
In Precinct 5EA, the only one of 7 precincts in which
John Kerry was awarded fewer votes than Al Gore (22
fewer, to be exact), 30 votes have been shifted to
the column of Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian
candidate. There are 289 precincts in Butler County.
Badnarik received 396 votes county wide, no more than
6 in any other precinct, yet 30 votes appear in his
column in this one precinct in Trenton City. This is
the very same pattern of election fraud that appears
11 times, on a larger scale, in the canvass reports
for Cleveland. See “Stealing Votes in Cleveland,” at
freepress.org/images/columns/steal_cleveland.pdf
Ross Township + 512
Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 2,830 927 1,903
2000 2,206 815 1,391
Change 624 112 512
In Ross Township, George W. Bush received 64.1% of
his net gain in 3 precincts (4JA, 4JB, 4JE) where,
altogether, Kerry received fewer votes than Gore:
Prec. Turnout Bush Kerry Bush Gore Net Gain
4JA + 24.3% 447 120 330 116 + 113
4JB + 28.3% 537 138 389 128 + 138
4JC + 50.2% 549 197 373 118 + 97
4JD + 18.1% 464 125 403 98 + 34
4JE + 4.4% 183 67 135 96 + 77
4JF + 11.9% 400 190 352 162 + 20
4JG + 3.0% 250 90 224 97 + 33
Look at these numbers. In these 3 precincts, voter
turnout was up by 22.1%. Bush’s share of the
increase was 313 votes to a loss of 15 votes for
Kerry. In the rest of Ross Township, where voter
turnout was up by 22.3%, Bush’s share of the increase
was 311 votes to 127 for Kerry. These vote totals,
all within the same township, are inconsistent.
Hanover Township + 555
Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 3,262 1,197 2,065
2000 2,752 1,242 1,510
Change 510 -45 555
In Hanover Township the precinct lines have been
redrawn during the last four years, making a precinct
by precinct comparison impossible. But look at these
numbers. Voter turnout was up 8.8%, from 4,170 to
4,537. Bush gained 510 votes, and Kerry received 45
fewer votes than Gore. These numbers are suspect.
St. Clair Township, Liberty Township, Monroe City,
Trenton City, Ross Township, and Hanover Township
account for 50.47% of the increase in Bush’s margin
of victory in Butler County. There are enough
statistical irregularities in the canvass sheets to
warrant examination of the voting records and close
scrutiny during the recount.
WARREN COUNTY
There would be no easier county in Ohio in which to
hack election results than Warren County. Unlike all
other counties in the state, the canvass records of
Warren County are not organized geographically. Not
even the sum totals for cities and townships can be
compared because the place names in the 2004 canvass
records are not the same as they were in 2000. The
names of the precincts are in code, and they appear
on the canvass sheets in a fixed but random order.
Only a sleuth would rearrange them into cities and
townships, which, of course, is what I have done.
Once the data are presented in a sensible format, the
voter registration data is not as irregular as it
appears when presented by the Board of Elections.
The constantly changing precinct boundaries make data
presented in that manner almost indecipherable.
Still, when the data are combined according to
cities, villages and townships, it can be seen that
the increase in voter registration since 2000 ranged
from 7.7% in Morrow Village to 79.0% in Hamilton
Township, and was 29.66% county wide, which is more
than double the population increase of 14.75%.
George W. Bush carried Warren County by 41,992 votes,
an increase of 12,816 over his plurality in 2000.
Most of his plurality (28,869 votes, or 68.75%) and
most of the increase in his margin of victory (9,047
votes, or 70.59%) came in six cities and townships:
Lebanon City + 1,324
Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 11,641 5,956 2,278 3,678
2000 8,795 4,011 1,657 2,354
Change +32.4% 1,945 621 1,324
Mason City + 2,009
Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 19,221 10,858 3,805 7,053
2000 13,899 7,653 2,609 5,044
Change +38.3% 3,205 1,196 2,009
Springboro City + 1,321
Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 10,447 5,985 2,189 3,796
2000 8,139 4,230 1,755 2,475
Change +28.4% 1,755 434 1,321
Clear Creek Township + 1,104
Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 8,145 4,997 1,574 3,423
2000 6,177 3,503 1,184 2,319
Change +31.9% 1,494 390 1,104
Deerfield Township + 1,365
Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 21,220 11,319 4,529 6,790
2000 16,359 8,527 3,102 5,425
Change +29.7% 2,792 1,427 1,365
Hamilton Township + 1,924
Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur.
2004 10,681 6,226 2,097 4,129
2000 5,967 3,399 1,194 2,205
Change +79.0% 2,827 903 1,924
In Lebanon City, Springboro City, Clear Creek
Township, and Hamilton Township, Bush’s point spread
over his opponent actually increased. If the Warren
County results were hacked, as many people suspect,
then these would be the places to look:
Bush Kerry Bush Gore
Lebanon City 72.04 27.55 68.83 28.44
Mason City 73.86 25.88 72.99 24.88
Springboro City 73.04 26.71 69.39 28.79
Clear Creek Township 75.77 23.87 72.62 24.54
Deerfield Township 71.19 28.49 71.77 26.11
Hamilton Township 74.55 25.11 72.17 25.35
There was a dramatic increase in voter registration
since the primary election of March 2, 2004, as
described in my previous paper, “Voter Turnout in
Warren County.” These cities and townships were no
exceptions:
VOTER REGISTRATION: 11/07/00 03/02/04 11/02/04
Lebanon City 8,795 10,026 11,641
Mason City 13,899 16,728 19,221
Springboro City 8,139 9,220 10,447
Clear Creek Township 6,177 7,121 8,145
Deerfield Township 16,359 18,144 21,220
Hamilton Township 5,967 8,426 10,681
Thus, in the four years since the 2000 presidential
election, these six cities and townships added 22,019
new voters to the rolls: 10,329 in the first 40
months, and 11,690 in the last 8 months. This is
entirely possible in a fast-growing county. Only a
careful examination and comparison of the voter rolls
and registration forms can determine its legitimacy.
CLERMONT COUNTY
The best way to illustrate what happened in Clermont
County is to begin by presenting two tables, showing
very different voting patterns in two townships.
Tate Township
Registered Voters Turnout
2000 2004 Change 2000 2004 Bush Kerry Bush Gore
A 502 517 + 2.9% 68.7 72.9 270 105 226 109
B 401 411 + 2.5% 51.1 58.9 167 71 131 69
C 451 480 + 6.4% 69.4 76.3 263 93 226 76
D 458 512 +11.8% 68.3 74.2 272 102 217 87
E 309 313 + 1.3% 70.2 77.3 169 68 131 82
F 353 370 + 4.8% 61.8 72.7 211 56 146 68
G 394 459 +16.5% 73.4 78.9 271 88 221 61
H 707 772 + 9.2% 65.6 76.0 415 167 320 129
I 403 423 + 5.0% 62.3 72.1 201 99 172 71
3978 4257 + 7.0% 65.7 73.5 2239 849 1790 752
Every precinct in Tate Township reported a modest
increase in voter registration, quite in line with
the 10.2% increase county wide. It was the voter
turnout, up by 7.8%, which translated into a big win
for Bush. Excluding third-party candidates, there
were 546 more votes cast for president in 2004 than
in 2000. Bush got 449 of them, and Kerry got 97.
Batavia Township
Registered Voters Turnout
2000 2004 Change 2000 2004 Bush Kerry Bush Gore
A 987 1263 +28.0% 59.3 66.3 594 232 412 161
B 560 1038 +85.4% 61.3 63.7 422 233 217 122
C 901 993 +10.2% 54.3 66.9 466 190 321 157
D 828 1061 +28.1% 66.2 70.8 557 189 385 157
E 559 937 +67.6% 53.1 70.4 452 202 170 112
F 444 503 +13.3% 56.8 72.6 247 115 141 103
G 702 930 +32.5% 64.0 72.3 451 214 298 136
H 468 583 +24.6% 71.6 79.6 337 121 233 92
I 567 287 -49.4% 44.6 81.2 180 52 167 79
J 679 938 +38.1% 69.5 76.9 516 195 325 134
K 1006 1269 +26.1% 60.7 68.4 645 215 431 166
L 675 592 -12.3% 59.1 63.0 222 149 232 164
8376 10394 +24.1% 59.9 69.9 5089 2107 3332 1583
In Batavia Township the voter registration rates are
unbelievable. The increase is said to be 24.1% for
the entire township, compared to 9.1% elsewhere in
the county. The increases range as high as 67.6% in
Precinct E, where 378 new voters were registered. It
appears that nearly all of them voted. Turnout is
said to have increased by 17.3%. Excluding third-
party candidates, there were 372 more votes cast for
president in 2004 than in 2000 in Precinct E alone.
Bush got 282 of them, and Kerry got 90. On the other
hand, decreases in voter registration rates range as
high as 49.4% in Precinct I, where 280 voters were
lost from the rolls. Nearly all the 313 people who
failed to vote in 2000 either died or moved away.
And yet, miraculously, excluding third-party
candidates, only 14 fewer votes were cast for
president in 2004 than in 2000. Bush managed to gain
13 votes in Precinct I, while the Democrats lost 27,
ostensibly because voter turnout increased by 36.6%.
There are 23 such precincts in Clermont County, where
turnout was up, but Kerry got fewer votes than Gore.
I do not believe these numbers. They call into
question both the voter registration data and the
turnout data for all of Clermont County, and the
validity of the vote count itself.
PRECINCTS WITH FEWER VOTES FOR KERRY THAN GORE
Registered Voters Turnout
2000 2004 Change 2000 2004 Bush Kerry Bush Gore
Goshen Township
A 342 339 – 0.9% 59.2 63.1 152 58 129 65
B 712 705 – 1.0% 55.1 67.1 327 142 240 144
D 722 724 + 0.3% 65.5 74.5 426 106 346 119
Milford City
E 580 573 - 1.2% 64.3 73.5 283 133 219 142
Miami Township
D 427 471 +10.3% 61.6 59.2 210 66 180 80
E 456 462 + 1.3% 73.9 78.6 282 81 245 83
S 547 549 + 0.4% 56.3 65.9 266 91 194 106
U 477 451 – 5.5% 73.4 82.0 274 91 237 103
V 777 730 – 6.0% 54.6 64.4 337 130 262 149
Monroe Township
B 543 499 – 8.1% 59.3 62.7 228 80 194 117
H 183 203 +10.9% 57.4 64.5 96 33 64 37
J 416 427 + 2.6% 57.7 68.4 220 69 163 72
Pierce Township
D 564 605 + 7.3% 58.3 65.4 271 122 187 132
H 282 203 -28.0% 49.3 50.8 93 40 82 55
L 249 353 +41.8% 68.8 77.1 197 70 154 87
Owensville Village
531 525 – 1.1% 51.8 69.1 221 134 127 139
Bethel Village
A 562 620 +10.3% 57.5 65.8 297 101 210 106
Tate Township
F 353 370 + 4.8% 61.8 72.7 211 56 146 68
G 394 459 +16.5% 73.4 78.9 271 88 221 61
Union Township
I 940 890 – 5.3% 56.9 66.1 394 186 324 200
N 628 570 – 9.2% 48.7 58.1 211 110 183 120
V 271 239 -11.8% 67.2 82.0 142 53 118 60
X 620 621 + 0.2% 65.2 73.4 322 128 267 129
Moscow Village
235 207 – 7.7% 53.2 60.4 86 38 72 50
These three counties between them, Butler, Warren,
and Clermont, provided nearly all of George W. Bush’s
lead on election night. They also provided, by far,
his three largest majorities, and the three largest
increases in Bush’s margin of victory among any of
the 72 counties that he won. The election results in
Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties should be
challenged, for they call into question the results
for the entire State of Ohio.
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